What does prior probability mean?
Definitions for prior probability
pri·or prob·a·bil·i·ty
This dictionary definitions page includes all the possible meanings, example usage and translations of the word prior probability.
Wiktionary
prior probabilitynoun
The probability of an event obtained without the knowledge of occurrence of other events that bear on it.
Wikipedia
Prior probability
A prior probability distribution, often simply called the prior, of an uncertain quantity is the probability distribution that would express one's beliefs about this quantity before some evidence is taken into account. For example, the prior could be the probability distribution representing the relative proportions of voters who will vote for a particular politician in a future election. The unknown quantity may be a parameter of the model or a latent variable rather than an observable variable. In Bayesian statistics, Bayes' rule prescribes how to update the prior with new information to obtain the posterior probability distribution, which is the conditional distribution of the uncertain quantity given new data. Historically, the choice of priors was often constrained to a conjugate family of a given likelihood function, for that it would result in a tractable posterior of the same family. The widespread availability of Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, however, has made this less of a concern.
Wikidata
Prior probability
In Bayesian statistical inference, a prior probability distribution, often called simply the prior, of an uncertain quantity p is the probability distribution that would express one's uncertainty about p before the "data" is taken into account. It is meant to attribute uncertainty rather than randomness to the uncertain quantity. The unknown quantity may be a parameter or latent variable. One applies Bayes' theorem, multiplying the prior by the likelihood function and then normalizing, to get the posterior probability distribution, which is the conditional distribution of the uncertain quantity given the data. A prior is often the purely subjective assessment of an experienced expert. Some will choose a conjugate prior when they can, to make calculation of the posterior distribution easier. Parameters of prior distributions are called hyperparameters, to distinguish them from parameters of the model of the underlying data. For instance, if one is using a beta distribution to model the distribution of the parameter p of a Bernoulli distribution, then:
Numerology
Chaldean Numerology
The numerical value of prior probability in Chaldean Numerology is: 7
Pythagorean Numerology
The numerical value of prior probability in Pythagorean Numerology is: 7
Translations for prior probability
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"prior probability." Definitions.net. STANDS4 LLC, 2025. Web. 15 Jan. 2025. <https://www.definitions.net/definition/prior+probability>.
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